Does the World Series Winner Predict the Outcome of the Presidential Election?

Coincidence Revisited: Will the World Series Winner Predict the Outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election?

by Bill Staples, Jr.

In the inaugural issue of The Baseball Research Journal published by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) in 1972, the editor identified a trend between the winner of the World Series and the winner of the presidential election. Between 1952 and 1968, if the American League team won the World Series, a Republican won the election; if the National League won, a Democrat won the election. Below is the original article in its entirety:


COINCIDENCE?


Even though Washington has lost its major league baseball club, will President Nixon still be rooting for an American League victory in the 1972 World Series? It may sound silly, but not if you consider that since 1952 a Republican candidate has been elected President every time an American League club has won the world championship in an election year, while the Democrats have taken the big prize when a National League club has been victorious. This is how it has worked out every election year since 1952. Incidentally, every World Series listed below has gone the full 7 games.


Year

World Series Winner

Presidential Winner

1952

New York, American

Dwight Eisenhower, Republican

1956

New York, American

Dwight Eisenhower, Republican

1960

Pittsburgh, National

John F. Kennedy, Democrat

1964

St. Louis, National

Lyndon B. Johnson, Democrat

1968

Detroit, American

Richard N. Nixon, Republican


Source: SABR Baseball Research Journal, V1., 1972, http://research.sabr.org/journals/coincidence


By the way, this trend continued for two more election cycles. In 1972 the Oakland A’s (American League) win was followed by a Richard Nixon (Republican) victory; and in 1976 the Cincinnati Reds (National League) win was followed by a Jimmy Carter (Democratic) victory. This correlation between the World Series winner and the presidential party continued for seven straight elections and came to an end with the 1980 victories of the Philadelphia Phillies (National League) and Ronald Reagan (Republican).


With 2024 being an election year I thought it would be fun to revisit this “Coincidence” article to see how the trend has held up since its publication years ago. In doing so, I also looked at the outcomes of World Series and presidential elections prior to 1952 as well. Here’s what I found:


TABLE 1: World Series Winners and Presidential Election Winners, 1908-2020

Year

World Series Winner

League

Presidential Election Winner

Political Party

AL=Rep. NL=Dem. Correlation

1908

CHI

NL

Taft

Rep

No

1912

BOS

AL

Wilson

Dem

No

1916

BOS

AL

Wilson

Dem

No

1920

CLE

AL

Harding

Dem

No

1924

WAS

AL

Coolidge

Rep

Yes

1928

NYY

AL

Hoover

Rep

Yes

1932

NYY

AL

Roosevelt

Dem

No

1936

NYY

AL

Roosevelt

Dem

No

1940

CIN

NL

Roosevelt

Dem

Yes

1944

CIN

NL

Roosevelt

Dem

Yes

1948

CLE

AL

Truman

Dem

No

1952

NYY

AL

Eisenhower

Rep

Yes

1956

NYY

AL

Eisenhower

Rep

Yes

1960

PIT

NL

Kennedy

Dem

Yes

1964

STL

NL

Johnson

Dem

Yes

1968

DET

AL

Nixon

Rep

Yes

1972

OAK

AL

Nixon

Rep

Yes

1976

CIN

NL

Carter

Dem

Yes

1980

PHI

NL

Reagan

Rep

No

1984

DET

AL

Reagan

Rep

Yes

1988

LAD

NL

Bush

Rep

No

1992

TOR

AL

Clinton

Dem

No

1996

NYY

AL

Clinton

Dem

No

2000

NYY

AL

Bush

Rep

Yes

2004

BOS

AL

Bush

Rep

Yes

2008

PHI

NL

Obama

Dem

Yes

2012

SFG

NL

Obama

Dem

Yes

2016

CHC

NL

Trump

Rep

No

2020

LAD

NL

Biden

Dem

Yes


The Question revisited: Is there a correlation between the winner of the World Series and the outcome of the Presidential Election?


The Answer: Of the 29 elections held between 1908 and 2020, there has been a correlation (AL = Rep.; NL = Dem.) between the World Series winner and the Presidential Election 17 times (58.6%).


It appears that the editor of the original 1972 SABR Baseball Research Journal article needed more data. By expanding the data set we now see that it was indeed just a coincidence … and this World Series-Presidential Election coincidence can be explained by the simple laws of probability.


Probability and Coin Flipping

In the flipping of two coins, the probability that each coin will reflect the same side at the same time can be expressed as: (Heads = H; Tails = T) with four potential outcomes: HT, TH, HH, TT. Thus, the odds are 50/50 that the two sides will match (HH, TT).


And the same is true with two events where the outcomes are binary. In the case of the World Series, the outcome is either an American or National League winner, and in our current two-party system the winner of the Presidential election is either a Republican or Democrat.


Thus, the outcome probability can be expressed as: (American = A, National = N; Republican = R; Democrat = D): AR, AD, NR, ND. So much like the toss of two coins, the odds are 50/50 that two sides will correlate (AR, ND).


Similar to the original 1972 SABR Coincidence article, I thought it would be interesting to explore other “silly” correlations between two seemingly unrelated binary events and the past 26 elections. Doing so would also give us a better appreciation of the World Series fairs as a Presidential Election predictor. Here’s what I found:


2024 Presidential Candidates

  • Donald John Trump, born Friday, June 14, 1946
  • Kamala Devi Harris, born Tuesday, October 20, 1964


TABLE 2: Other "Silly" Predictors of the Presidential Election

Predictor of Presidential Election outcome?

Correlation

Freq./

Prob.

Consec.

Streak

Who has the advantage

in 2024

World Series winner

AL = Rep. wins

NL = Dem. wins

17 of 29

58.6%

7

(1952-1976)

Trump if AL wins

Harris if NL wins

Year the presidential candidate was born

Odd year = Rep. wins

Even year = Dem. wins

16 of 29

55.2%

5

(1992-2008)

Draw

Trump (1946,even)

Harris (1964, even)

Month the presidential candidate was born

Odd month = Rep. wins

Even month = Dem. wins

12 of 29

41.4%

3, twice

(1908-1916)

& (1952-1960)

Draw

Trump (June, 6th month, even)

Harris (October, 19th month, even

Calendar Day the presidential candidate was born

Odd day = Rep. wins

Even day = Dem. wins

17 of 29

58.6%

7

(1940-1964)

Draw

Trump (14, even)

Harris (20, even)

Number of letters in the candidates’ last name

Odd = Rep. wins

Even = Dem. wins

11 of 29

37.9%

7

(1940-1964)

Draw

Trump (5, odd)

Harris (6, even)

Unemployment trends, increase or decrease from year prior to election year

Increasing = Rep. wins

Decreasing = Dem. wins

15 of 29

51.7%

4

(1936-1948)

Unemployment rate increase

July 2023 = 3.5%

July 2024 = 4.3%


Sorry fellow baseball fans. We’d like to think that National Pastime is somehow connected to the pulse of the Presidential Election. But it’s not. This informal study suggests that the winner of the World Series IS NOT a strong predictor of the presidential election.


You might think that a significant factor like the unemployment rate would be a stronger indicator of the presidential election outcome. However, in looking at unemployment trends, increasing or decreasing from the year prior to election year (Increasing = Rep. wins; Decreasing = Dem. wins), I discovered that a correlation between these two events occurred in 15 of 29 elections (51.7%) – a lower frequency than the World Series winner (AL = Rep.; NL = Dem.).


Coincidentally, the “Calendar Day the presidential candidate was born” (Odd day = Rep. wins, Even day = Dem. wins) is the same as the World Series winner, occurring in 17 of 29 (58.6%) elections between 1908 and 2020.


With regards to the streak of seven consecutive matches between League and Political Party victories (1952-1976 elections), this is a common occurrence when comparing the outcomes of two seemingly unrelated binary factors.


For example, a streak of seven consecutive matches also occurred between the presidential election outcome and the “Calendar Day the presidential candidate was born” (Odd day = Rep. wins, Even day = Dem. wins) and the “Number of letters in the candidates’ last name” (Odd = Rep. wins; Even = Dem. wins), both trends lasting between 1940 and 1964.


How You Really Predict the Outcome of the Presidential Election

So what does this mean for the 2024 election? The best “silly” predictor of the Presidential Election winner is “Calendar Day the candidate was born” (Odd day = Rep. wins, Even day = Dem. wins). But both candidates were born on even days (Trump on June 14; Harris on October 20). Who will win? Your guess is just as good as anyone else’s or as good as any seemingly unrelated binary event out there.


In the end, I’d recommend you just flip a coin. Heads, your candidate wins. Tails, the other guy wins. Virtual coins are available at no cost online at: http://www.random.org/coins. (By the way, flip two coins 29 times to see if you can match or beat the streak of seven consecutive matches. My best streak was five consecutive matches.)


So, with the understanding that the probability is 58.6% that the World Series winner will predict the outcome of the Presidential Election, I predict that the New York Yankees (AL) will battle the Los Angeles Dodgers (NL) in this year’s Fall Classic. If so, here’s the League-Political Party match-up:


Year

World Series League Representative

Presidential Candidate

2024

New York Yankees, American

Donald Trump, Republican

2024

Los Angeles Dodgers, National

Kamala Harris, Democrat


And while I do have my favorites for both the World Series and the Presidential Election, I’ll refrain from sharing them. I can tell you though that if my picks do win, there WILL NOT be a correlation between the League and Political Party (AL = Rep.; NL = Dem.) in 2024.


Guess we’ll just have to wait until Wednesday, November 6th to see how it all plays out.


##


About the author

Bill Staples, Jr., is a member of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) in Arizona, chairman of the of the SABR Asian Baseball Committee, board member of the Nisei Baseball Research Project, and a past speaker at the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Learn more at www.zenimura.com.