2016 Clinton-Trump Edition: Does the World Series Winner Predict the Outcome of the Presidential Election?

2016 Clinton-Trump Edition: Does the World Series Winner Predict the Outcome of the Presidential Election?

by Bill Staples, Jr.

Author's note: Back by popular demand, this is an update to my blog post published during the 2012 election. 

Question: Is there a correlation between the winner of the World Series and the outcome of the Presidential Election?

Answer: It's not definitive, but more often than not, when the National League wins the World Series, a Democrat wins the Presidential Election; when the American League wins, a Republican wins the Presidential Election.

Let's look at the data:

TABLE: World Series Winners and Presidential Election Winners, 1908-2016
Year	World Series Winner	League	Presidential Election Winner	Political Party	AL=Rep. NL=Dem. Correlation
1908	CHI	NL	Taft	Rep	No
1912	BOS	AL	Wilson	Dem	No
1916	BOS	AL	Wilson	Dem	No
1920	CLE	AL	Harding	Dem	No
1924	WAS	AL	Coolidge	Rep	Yes
1928	NYY	AL	Hoover	Rep	Yes
1932	NYY	AL	Roosevelt	Dem	No
1936	NYY	AL	Roosevelt	Dem	No
1940	CIN	NL	Roosevelt	Dem	Yes
1944	CIN	NL	Roosevelt	Dem	Yes
1948	CLE	AL	Truman	Dem	No
1952	NYY	AL	Eisenhower	Rep	Yes
1956	NYY	AL	Eisenhower	Rep	Yes
1960	PIT	NL	Kennedy	Dem	Yes
1964	STL	NL	Johnson	Dem	Yes
1968	DET	AL	Nixon	Rep	Yes
1972	OAK	AL	Nixon	Rep	Yes
1976	CIN	NL	Carter	Dem	Yes
1980	PHI	NL	Reagan	Rep	No
1984	DET	AL	Reagan	Rep	Yes
1988	LAD	NL	Bush	Rep	No
1992	TOR	AL	Clinton	Dem	No
1996	NYY	AL	Clinton	Dem	No
2000	NYY	AL	Bush	Rep	Yes
2004	BOS	AL	Bush	Rep	Yes
2008	PHI	NL	Obama	Dem	Yes
2012	SFG	NL	Obama	Dem	Yes
2016	CUBS WIN!	NL	Trump	Rep	No

2016 Results: With the Cubs and Trump winning in 2016, then the correlation percentage dropped to 57.1% (16 for 28). If the Cubs and Clinton both had won in 2016, then of the 28 elections held between 1908 and 2016, there will have been a correlation (AL = Rep.; NL = Dem.) between the World Series winner and the Presidential Election 60.7%.

BTW, the first World Series held during an election year was back in 1908, when the Cubs last won it all. Republican William Howard Taft won the election, but its worth pointing out that the Republican party of 1908 is nothing like the Republican Party of 2016. In 1908, the Republican Party platform still reflected the values set forth by of the "Party of Lincoln". Taft also ran as a continuation of popular two-term (1901-1909) President Theodore Roosevelt, who was also a "Lincoln" Republican.

In my original blog post, I stated that the World Series-Presidential Election coincidence could be explained by the simple laws of probability (and coin flipping).

Some people would like to think that National Pastime is somehow connected to the pulse of the Presidential Election. But most likely it’s not.

I would say that once we reach 70% then someone might be able to argue that the winner of the World Series IS a strong predictor of the presidential election.

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