Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Every Baseball Era Deserves an Asterisk, Not Just the Steroid Era


Baseball's 2013 Hall of Fame Ballot was released today, and with much controversy.  Personally, I think every era of baseball deserves an asterisk, not just the steroid era.

The way I see it, the career numbers of Babe Ruth and his peers were "artificially enhanced" because they never faced the most talented pitchers of the Negro Leagues (Bullet Rogan, Dick Redding, Andy Cooper, etc.). Racism and the "color line" kept African-Americans out of MLB until 1947.

I used to think that the game experienced its purest period circa 1950 to 1980, but now that I know more about Asian baseball history, my position has changed.

Unfortunately, I now think that the career numbers Hank Aaron (one of my favorites) and his peers were also "artificially enhanced" because they never faced the most talented pitchers from Japan (Masaichi Kaneda, Kazuhisa Inao, Takehiko Bessho, etc.). Post-WWII hysteria and xenophobia (perhaps from both sides of the Pacific) kept Japanese stars out of MLB until (technically 1964, but in reality) 1995 (with Hideo Nomo). That same post-WWII hysteria forced Japanese-Americans (born in the U.S.) to play professionally in Japan during the 1950s and 60s.

(On a related note, I can envision a day 50 to 100 years from now when future baseball fans will look back at the impact of the "former" U.S. embargo against Cuba and lament over the great Cuban players (known and unknown) who never got a chance put on a major league uniform.)

Baseball is a reflection of American society, and the "asterisks" of each generation reinforce this fact.

From caffeine to Viagra to Enron-esque accounting practices, late-20th century America was all about performance enhancement. So was baseball (and the executives who ran the game).

The underlying issue in today’s Hall of Fame ballot controversy is not that the star players of the late 20th century took steroids; the real challenge is that we (as fans, sports writers, historians, etc.) insist on comparing the modern game to past eras that we falsely believe to be "innocent and pure". They weren't.

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are Hall-of-Fame worthy ... just as much as Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Does the World Series Winner Predict the Outcome of the Presidential Election?

Coincidence Revisited: Does the World Series Winner Predict the Outcome of the Presidential Election?

by Bill Staples, Jr.

In the inaugural issue of The Baseball Research Journal published by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) in 1972, the editor identified a trend between the winner of the World Series and the winner of the presidential election. Between the years 1952 and 1968, if the American League team won the World Series, a Republican won the election; if the National League won, a Democrat won the election. Below is the original article in its entirety:

COINCIDENCE?

Even though Washington has lost its major league baseball club, will President Nixon still be rooting for an American League victory in the 1972 World Series? It may sound silly, but not if you consider that since 1952 a Republican candidate has been elected President every time an American League club has won the world championship in an election year, while the Democrats have taken the big prize when a National League club has been victorious. This is how it has worked out every election year since 1952. Incidentally, every World Series listed below has gone the full 7 games.

Year World Series Winner Presidential Winner
1952 New York, American Dwight Eisenhower, Republican
1956 New York, American Dwight Eisenhower, Republican
1960 Pittsburgh, National John F. Kennedy, Democrat
1964 St. Louis, National Lyndon B. Johnson, Democrat
1968 Detroit, American Richard N. Nixon, Republican

Source: SABR Baseball Research Journal, V1., 1972, http://research.sabr.org/journals/coincidence

By the way, this trend continued for two more election cycles. In 1972 the Oakland A’s (American League) win was followed by a Richard Nixon (Republican) victory; and in 1976 the Cincinnati Reds (National League) win was followed by a Jimmy Carter (Democratic) victory. This correlation between the World Series winner and the presidential party continued for seven straight elections and came to an end with the 1980 victories of the Philadelphia Phillies (National League) and Ronald Reagan (Republican).

With 2012 being an election year I thought it would be fun to revisit this “Coincidence” article to see how the trend has held up since its publication 40 years ago. In doing so, I also looked at the outcomes of World Series and presidential elections prior to 1952 as well. Here’s what I found:

TABLE 1: World Series Winners and Presidential Election Winners, 1908-2008
Year World Series Winner League Presidential Election Winner Political Party AL=Rep. NL=Dem. Correlation
1908 CHI NL Taft Rep No
1912 BOS AL Wilson Dem No
1916 BOS AL Wilson Dem No
1920 CLE AL Harding Dem No
1924 WAS AL Coolidge Rep Yes
1928 NYY AL Hoover Rep Yes
1932 NYY AL Roosevelt Dem No
1936 NYY AL Roosevelt Dem No
1940 CIN NL Roosevelt Dem Yes
1944 CIN NL Roosevelt Dem Yes
1948 CLE AL Truman Dem No
1952 NYY AL Eisenhower Rep Yes
1956 NYY AL Eisenhower Rep Yes
1960 PIT NL Kennedy Dem Yes
1964 STL NL Johnson Dem Yes
1968 DET AL Nixon Rep Yes
1972 OAK AL Nixon Rep Yes
1976 CIN NL Carter Dem Yes
1980 PHI NL Reagan Rep No
1984 DET AL Reagan Rep Yes
1988 LAD NL Bush Rep No
1992 TOR AL Clinton Dem No
1996 NYY AL Clinton Dem No
2000 NYY AL Bush Rep Yes
2004 BOS AL Bush Rep Yes
2008 PHI NL Obama Dem Yes

The Question revisited: Is there a correlation between the winner of the World Series and the outcome of the Presidential Election?

The Answer: Of the 26 elections held between 1908 and 2008, there has been a correlation (AL = Rep.; NL = Dem.) between the World Series winner and the Presidential Election 15 times (57.7%).

It appears that the editor of the original 1972 SABR Baseball Research Journal article needed more data. By expanding the data set we now see that it was indeed just a coincidence … and this World Series-Presidential Election coincidence can be explained by the simple laws of probability.

Probability and Coin Flipping
In the flipping of two coins, the probability that each coin will reflect the same side at the same time can be expressed as: (Heads = H; Tails = T) with four potential outcomes: HT, TH, HH, TT. Thus, the odds are 50/50 that the two sides will match (HH, TT).

And the same is true with two events where the outcomes are binary. In the case of the World Series, the outcome is either an American or National League winner, and in our current two-party system the winner of the Presidential election is either a Republican or Democrat.

Thus, the outcome probability can be expressed as: (American = A, National = N; Republican = R; Democrat = D): AR, AD, NR, ND. So much like the toss of two coins, the odds are 50/50 that two sides will correlate (AR, ND).

Similar to the original 1972 SABR Coincidence article, I thought it would be interesting to explore other “silly” correlations between two seemingly unrelated binary events and the past 26 elections. Doing so would also give us a better appreciation of the World Series fairs as a Presidential Election predictor. Here’s what I found:

TABLE 2: Other "Silly" Predictors of the Presidential Election
Predictor of Presidential Election outcome? Correlation Freq./
Prob.
Consec.
Streak
Who has advantage
in 2012
World Series winner AL = Rep. wins
NL = Dem. wins
15 of 26
57.7%
7
(1952-1976)
Romney if AL wins
Obama if NL wins
Year the presidential candidate was born Odd year = Rep. wins
Even year = Dem. wins
16 of 26
61.5%
5
(1992-2008)
Draw
Romney (1947, odd)
Obama (1961, odd)
Month the presidential candidate was born Odd month = Rep. wins
Even month = Dem. wins
12 of 26
46.2%
3, twice
(1908-1916)
& (1952-1960)
Draw
Romney (March,
3rd month, odd)
Obama (August,
8th month, even)
Calendar Day the presidential candidate was born Odd day = Rep. wins
Even day = Dem. wins
17 of 26
65.4%
7
(1940-1964)
Draw
Romney (12th, even)
Obama (4th, even)
Number of letters in the candidates’ last name Odd = Rep. wins
Even = Dem. wins
15 of 26
57.7%
7
(1940-1964)
Draw
Romney (6, even)
Obama (5, odd)
Unemployment trends, increase or decrease from year prior to election year Increasing = Rep. wins
Decreasing = Dem. wins
15 of 26
57.7%
4
(1936-1948)
Obama
Unemployment rate decrease
July 2011 = 9.1%
July 2012 = 8.3%

Sorry fellow baseball fans. We’d like to think that National Pastime is somehow connected to the pulse of the Presidential Election. But it’s not. This informal study suggests that the winner of the World Series IS NOT a strong predictor of the presidential election.

You might think that a significant factor like the unemployment rate would be a stronger indicator of the presidential election outcome. However, in looking at unemployment trends, increasing or decreasing from the year prior to election year (Increasing = Rep. wins; Decreasing = Dem. wins), I discovered that a correlation between these two events occurred in 15 of 26 elections (57.7%) – the same frequency as the World Series winner (AL = Rep.; NL = Dem.).

Oddly, a better predictor of the presidential election outcome is the “Calendar Day the presidential candidate was born” (Odd day = Rep. wins, Even day = Dem. wins). This correlation has occurred in 17 of 26 (65.4%) elections between 1908 and 2008.

With regards to the streak of seven consecutive matches between League and Political Party victories (1952-1976 elections), this is a common occurrence when comparing the outcomes of two seemingly unrelated binary factors.

For example, a streak of seven consecutive matches also occurred between the presidential election outcome and the “Calendar Day the presidential candidate was born” (Odd day = Rep. wins, Even day = Dem. wins) and the “Number of letters in the candidates’ last name” (Odd = Rep. wins; Even = Dem. wins), both trends lasting between 1940 and 1964.

How You Really Predict the Outcome of the Presidential Election
So what does this mean for the 2012 election? The best “silly” predictor of the Presidential Election winner is “Calendar Day the candidate was born” (Odd day = Rep. wins, Even day = Dem. wins). But both candidates were born on even days (Romney on March 12; Obama on August 4). Who will win? Your guess is just as good as anyone else’s, or just as good as any seemingly unrelated binary event out there.

In the end, I’d recommend you just flip a coin. Heads, your candidate wins. Tails, the other guy wins. Virtual coins are available at no cost online at: http://www.random.org/coins. (By the way, flip two coins 26 times to see if you can match or beat the streak of seven consecutive matches. My best streak was five consecutive matches.)

So, with the understanding that the probability is 57.7% that the World Series winner will predict the outcome of the Presidential Election, I predict that the New York Yankees (AL) will battle the Washington Nationals (NL) in this years’ Fall Classic. If so, here’s the League-Political Party match-up:

Year World Series League Representative Presidential Candidate
2012 New York Yankees, American Mitt Romney, Republican
2012 Washington Nationals, National Barrack Obama, Democrat

And while I do have my favorites for both the World Series and the Presidential Election, I’ll refrain from sharing them. I can tell you though that if my picks do win, there WILL NOT be a correlation between the League and Political Party (AL = Rep.; NL = Dem.) in 2012.

Guess we’ll just have to wait until Wednesday, November 7th to see how it all plays out.

##

About the author
Bill Staples, Jr., is a member of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) in Arizona, chairman of the of the SABR Asian Baseball Committee, board member of the Nisei Baseball Research Project, and a past speaker at the National Baseball Hall of Fame. He received the 2011 SABR Baseball Research Award for his book: Kenichi Zenimura, Japanese American Baseball Pioneer (McFarland, 2011). Learn more at www.zenimura.com.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Alpert, Staples, Seamheads group win SABR Baseball Research Awards

The 2012 SABR Baseball Research Awards, which honor outstanding research projects completed during the preceding calendar year which have significantly expanded our knowledge or understanding of baseball, have been awarded for:
  • Rebecca T. Alpert for the research she did to prepare her book, Out of Left Field: Jews and Black Baseball, published by Oxford University Press.
  • Gary Ashwill, Scott Simkus, Dan Hirsch and Kevin Johnson for the research they did to assemble the Seamheads Negro Leagues Database at Seamheads.com.
  • Bill Staples Jr. for the research he did to prepare his book, Kenichi Zenimura: Japanese American Baseball Pioneer, published by McFarland & Co.
The authors will receive their awards at the SABR 42 national convention, June 27-July 1, 2012, at the Marriott City Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The winners receive a plaque and a $200 cash award.

Full story >>

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Life Time Fitness Video: Bill Staples, Jr. & Zenimura

We (the Staples family) are members of the Life Time Fitness in Tempe, AZ. Life Time features club members on their internal TV channel and recently I was invited to particpate in an on-camera interview to discuss the Kenichi Zenimura biography. Check it out below.


And BTW, an editorial correction for the die-hard stat fans out there:Ted Williams had a lifetime On-Base-Percentage of .482, not .489. He wore uniform #9 and I inadvertantly mixed that fact into the stat. To paraphrase Roger Clemens, I "misremembered." Nonetheless, I think Ted's lifetime OBP is an impressive accomplishment that deserves more attention and appreciation.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Day of Remembrance 2012

Thank you to the Valley Unitarian Universalist (VUU) community for allowing me to recognize the Day of Remembrance with them today during their Global Issues luncheon. Over 30 members of the VUU and surrounding community attended to hear me deliver the following presention:

Day of Remembrance 2012: Commemorating the 70th Anniversary of Japanese American Internment in Arizona


Summary: Join Chandler resident and baseball historian Bill Staples on Feb 19, the Day of Remembrance (DOR) that marks the signing of Executive Order 9066 by President Franklin Roosevelt in 1942 that sent over 120,000 personal of Japanese Ancestry to incarceration camps, including over 30,000 to Arizona during World War II.

Staples, a board member of the Nisei Baseball Research Project and author of "Kenichi Zenimura, Japanese American Baseball Pioneer" (McFarland, 2011), invites you to join him on this Day of Remembrance to reflect on lessons learned from WWII Japanese American internment. The discussion will touch on themes of civil rights, race relations, Buddhism, the post-9/11 world and, of course, the great game of baseball.

**

Special thanks to my "roadies" (aka the family) for helping with the presentation.

"I don't care for organized religion -- which is why I'm a fan of the UU church." Joking aside, it was nice to be back in a familiar environment. Really enjoyed my time in the pulpit.

Baseball trivia: Did you know that in 1998 (wow, 14 years ago) I founded what is possibly the first and only softball team in VUU history? In honor of our Buddhist UU minister at the time (James I. Ford) we named the team "The Dharma Bums." Smart group of guys. We had several PhDs, guys with Masters degrees, a lawyer, engineer ... we could have written a great thesis ... but finished the season with a perfect 0-8 record. ;-)

Monday, January 16, 2012

Upcoming Zenimura Book Events

If you're in Arizona or California during Q1 2012, please join me at the following speaking and book-signing events:
Valley Unitarian Universalist Congregation
Sunday, February 19, 2012
12:30 PM
Chandler, AZ

web: http://www.vuu.org/
The 19th Annual NINE Spring Training Conference
Wednesday, March 7-10, 2012
Tempe, AZ
web:
http://www.nineregistration.com/
Japanese American National Museum (JANM)
Saturday, March 24, 2012
2:00 to 4:00 PM
Los Angeles, CA
web:
http://www.janm.org/events/2012/03/#24

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Nisei Baseball Featured at the Chandler Multicultural Festival

Chandler’s 17th Annual Multicultural Festival on January 14 highlighted the community’s rich cultural diversity through food, music, dance, art, storytelling and more.


Included in the "more" category was the Nisei Baseball Research Project. The NBRP booth showcased my new Kenichi Zenimura book, and also highlighted the "edu-tainment" projects of the organization, such as:
  • Educational Curriculum: Diamonds in the Rough
  • Documentary: Diamonds in the Rough, Zeni and the Legacy of Japanese-American Baseball with Host and Narrator - Pat Morita
  • Movie: American Pastime
  • Book: Through a Diamond: 100 years of Japanese American Baseball, by Kerry Yo Nakagawa
In addition to NBRP-related projects, the booth also featured Baseball Saved Us, by Ken Ken Mochizuki (Author) & Dom Lee (Illustrator). I use this book when speaking at elementary schools, as it is a great introduction to Japanese American Internment for kids (of any age).




Among the masses who stopped by the booth was Ken Koshio, Taiko Drummer who performed on the Unity Stage earlier in the day. Because I was working the booth, I didn't get a chance to see him play. Next month he is scheduled to play at the Arizona Matsuri Festival. I'll be attending just as a spectator so I can thoroughly participate in and enjoy everything the Matsuri Festival has to offer. If you can, check it out:


Arizona Matsuri
The 28th Annual Festival of Japan
February 25-26, 2012
Heritage and Science Park,
Downtown Phoenix

http://azmatsuri.org/Performers/performers.html

For more information about the Nisei Baseball Research Project, visit: http://www.niseibaseball.com.


My next post will provide a listing of events I'll be presenting at in early 2012.